Monday, November 19, 2012 - RNC Analyzes Romney Loss, Ohio Among Reasons

By: Rob Schreier

Post election evaluation is fully underway inside the Republican Party as the Presidential Election now becomes a distant memory as incumbent Barack Obama faces national security challenges from several angles.

The Republic National Committee compiled a report, detailing election numbers and outlining areas where candidate Mitt Romney and his campaign fell short.

Data provides more concrete answers to a tight race that came down to a few key categories. All of the numbers collected stemmed from a 250K exit poll survey.

O-H--Oh No!

Ohio, one of four battleground states determined by the RNC report, served as the primary focus of the group from the national media perspective.

African American Voters helped Obama take Ohio (NBC)
The Republican candidate was able to take 10 percent more of the independent vote, but a increased presence of Democratic voters neutralized that gain.

But, what is more troubling for the Red is the minority vote, a category that Republicans were crushed in throughout the general elections. 178,000 more African American voters went to the polls, and Obama won 96% of the vote.

Yes, 96% of a growing demographic that could potentially see minority votes becoming 1 in every 3 voters. Keep in mind that Obama won the Buckeye state by 103,00 votes.

What will be the threshold moving forward with specifically targets adds, speeches, appearances, for the minority vote. Customized YouTube ads, emails, and demographic research tools should lend to more minority targeting, especially for Republicans based on this information.

One more note about Ohio, the vote tally was 123,550 less that the turnout in 2008 (McCain vs. Obama). It was the only battleground state that had a deficit of voters on the hells of the last election.

Late Deciders Swinging Democratic

Noticeable changes in the undecided voters seemed to coincide with major media events in the election.

What sign to I vote for? (NBC)
Romney received a 53-45 boost after the first presidential debate, but Obama seemed to pick up steam in the later stages of the race.

Could it have been the infamous 47% video leaked at a private function, or was it a negative response of the Republican hopeful mishandling the response to Hurricane Sandy one week before the election.

What is clear is this: 70 percent of voters had decided on a candidate before September with the next 20 percent deciding in September and October. Those two stretches are the most critical for the mass numbers, but there was still 6% deciding in the final days leading up to the election.

Those last impressions indeed could have been the difference for Romney/Ryan as the exit polls showed a 50-45 favor for the Democratic ticket.

What the casual, uninformed voter swayed by the late stages of the campaign trail, both parties must handle the final moments of their trails carefully.

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